How The NY Giants Can Win The Superbowl (Or, Even More Reasons Why The Patriots Are Going To Win)

Cold, Hard Football Facts yesterday released what they believe to be the blueprint for a NY Giant’s Superbowl victory ... and it’s not promising. Thirteen and a half point underdogs to the perfect AFC champs, the Giants need to play perfect football while the Patriots have to basically play like the NY Mets, circa 2007. An improbable occurrence, no doubt, but one that has a slim chance nonetheless. And while supporters of the Giants trot out tired cliches like “any given Sunday” and how the ‘record-setting road win Giants (at 10 consecutive wins)’ are hotter then a perfect 18-0 Patriots, here are few things that the Giants need to do to have a fighting chance on Sunday:

The Giants need to pass the ball better than the record-setting Patriots offense.
Is it possible? Sure. The San Diego Chargers held Brady and Moss to around 200 yards passing and 14 yards receiving respectively in the AFC title game. Unlike the Bolts though, the Giants don’t sport an explosive secondary, they aren’t playing in bad weather (which would hurt the Pats passing threat) and even in their “close” week 17 match-up the Pats still torched the Giants defense for 356 yards in a cold, windy Meadowlands stadium. Granted Eli Manning has been great in the playoffs so far, having not thrown an interception since facing, you guessed it, the New England Patriots. Still for the Giants to win they need to beat the Pats in the air, which is a very tall order considering the man behind center for the Pats and the receiving options he has.
The Giants need to sack or intercept Tom Brady at least five times.
You would think this would be pretty easy for the Giants. They did lead the NFL with 53 team sacks this year and sport the best defensive lines in the league. This goal seems within reach too, except when you realize that in their week 17 match-up the “sacking” Giants only got one sack on Brady, coming from the right side. A side that won’t be as much of a liability five weeks later on Sunday as two members of the Pats offensive line were out due to injuries. Also the Pats played without any healthy tight-ends as well, which the Pats use consistently to help block the extra defender coming in on blitz packages. Hurrying the quarterback is necessary, but as we’ve seen time and time again, Brady withstands pressure all the time.

Also while Brady did toss up 3 INTs in the AFC title game against the Bolts (so it’s in the realm of possibility he could do it again), it was also the first time in 2 years he’s done that in the playoffs and historically Brady has never had two poor games back to back. The Giants might be able to get an interception or a sack, but unless they can mount a number of them (5 or more combined) it’s not going to be enough to slow the Brady and the Patriot’s offense.
Eli Manning can’t throw any interceptions.
Cold, Hard Football Facts makes this emphatic statement on this point: “if Eli Manning throws 1 pick – just one – the Giants will not win the game.” The article goes on to illustrate this point statistically quite well, and I would just add that if this game devolves into shoot-out: Manning is going to mess up.
The Giants need another kick-off return touchdown.
The Giant’s kick-off TD return was huge in Week 17. It kept them close in the first half and gave them a fighting chance going into the fourth quarter. The Giants offense simply cannot keep up with the Patriots offense if this Sunday’s game becomes a back-and-forth match like we saw in Superbowl 38. So the Giants need to have their special teams step it up and contribute another TD again. Kick-off touchdown returns though are rare animals and hard to duplicate against the same team just five weeks later. Don’t hold your breath here.
The Giants need to outscore the Patriots in the fourth quarter.
In the six games this year the Patriots won in the fourth quarter (@Dallas, @Indy, Philly, @Baltimore, @NY Giants and San Diego), the Patriots outscored these six teams 70-24 in the fourth quarter. The Giants held a 12 point lead over the Patriots halfway through the third quarter in week 17, and then watched as the Patriots rattled off 22 uncontested points to take a ten point lead with six and a half minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Giants did score, but it took them almost five minutes to drive the field for 7 points before trying an on-side kick. The Patriots win close games because they are the kings of the fourth quarter, doing what it takes to win when it matters most. If the Giants are going to beat the Patriots, according to Cold Hard Football Facts, they need to score 14 points in the fourth quarter.

So there you have it, the blueprint for Superbowl greatness. If the Giants can do all those things, then they’ll have achieved one of the biggest upsets in football history. Chances are though they won’t and I expect the Pats to win by 7 to 10 points. I could see the Patriots coming out and just blowing away the Giants, but chances are the Giants will hang around through about three quarters and whimper out in the fourth quarter. I just can’t see the Giants pulling it off.

Posted by Joshua Hynes

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 30, 2008 at 12:30pm. It has been filed under Sports, Thoughts, Joshua.

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